Ivanhoe Mines Cuts 2025 Copper Guidance After Seismic Flooding Disrupts Kamoa-Kakula Operations
Ivanhoe Mines has lowered its 2025 copper production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), following a temporary suspension of underground operations at the Kakula mine due to severe flooding caused by seismic activity.
The incident, which occurred on May 18, forced a full shutdown of the Kakula underground mine and triggered an extensive geotechnical review. In response, Ivanhoe has implemented a revised short-term mine plan.
Underground mining resumed on the western side of the Kakula mine over the past weekend, with operations on the eastern side expected to restart shortly.
Activities there will focus on developing access to a new high-grade mining area that is physically separated from the flooded zones. Dewatering in the eastern portion is scheduled to begin in August.
Ivanhoe now expects 2025 copper production to range between 370,000 and 420,000 tonnes—representing a 28% drop at the midpoint from its previous forecast.
The revised guidance takes into account the May flooding and ongoing risks, including further seismic events and infrastructure strain.
Additionally, Ivanhoe has withdrawn its 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tonnes of copper pending further review.
Following the incident, the Phase 1 and 2 concentrators have been running at roughly 50% of their nameplate capacity, drawing feed from surface stockpiles and ore from the Kamoa 1 and Kansoko decline zones. Full capacity is expected to be restored in the second half of 2025.
Despite the disruption, the Phase 3 concentrator, located near the Kamoa mines, has continued to exceed performance expectations since the start of the year.
Construction of the Kamoa-Kakula smelter—designed to be Africa’s largest single-line blister copper facility—remains on schedule.
Cold commissioning is expected in September, with initial anode copper production targeted for October.
“We deeply appreciate our team’s swift response to stabilize water levels and resume mining on the western side of Kakula,” said Ivanhoe Executive Co-Chairperson Robert Friedland.
“The team has quickly secured the critical equipment required to safely dewater the mine and access a new high-grade area in the east.”
While long-term planning for 2026 and 2027 remains under review, Friedland expressed confidence in the operation’s future: “Kamoa-Kakula is and will continue to be a world-class, Tier 1 operation with decades of production ahead.”
CEO Marna Cloete emphasized the company’s commitment to safety, praising the efforts of staff and contractors for restoring operations without any lost-time injuries.
Preliminary geotechnical investigations suggest the seismic activity originated from cascading ore yield and stress redistribution onto regional pillars on the eastern side of the Kakula mine, where a significant portion of ore had already been extracted.
Independent engineering firms Beck Engineering (Australia) and Open House Management Solutions (South Africa) were brought in immediately after the event to work alongside Kamoa-Kakula’s in-house team.
Their early findings indicate that blocks of ore marked for secondary extraction began yielding in succession, overloading regional pillars.
Although backfill composed of tailings and cement was used in mined-out stopes, it did not fully prevent stress redistribution.
In response, Ivanhoe has revised its mining plans to increase pillar widths and change the extraction sequence to improve stress management. Advanced geotechnical monitoring systems will also be deployed throughout the mine.
Access to the flooded eastern section remains restricted, with a complete assessment to follow once dewatering is finished.
Ivanhoe has paused work on its updated Integrated Development Plan (IDP) for the Kamoa-Kakula complex until a full review of the revised geotechnical assumptions is completed.
The company will issue a timing update on the IDP once technical teams conclude their evaluations and resume planning.
Despite the temporary setback, Ivanhoe remains confident in the long-term prospects of the Kamoa-Kakula project and its role as a leading copper producer globally.
